Evaluation of short-term probabilistic eruption forecasting at Whakaari, New Zealand

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Phreatic explosions at volcanoes are difficult to forecast but can be locally devastating, as illustrated by the deadly 2019 Whakaari (New Zealand) eruption. Quantifying eruption likelihood is essential for risk calculations that underpin volcano access decisions and disaster response. But estimating probabilities notoriously sudden onset eruptions. Here, we describe two retrospectively developed models short-term (48 h) probabilistic forecasting of phreatic eruptions Whakaari. The based on a pseudo-prospective analysis seven whose precursors were identified time series feature engineering continuous seismic data. first model, an optimized warning system, could anticipate six out cost 14 days each year. While in effect, probability about 8% 48 h, which 126 times higher than outside warning. second model used isotonic calibration translate output onto scale. When applied pseudo-prospectively h prior December eruption, it indicated up 400 background. Finally, quantified accuracy these data-driven forecasts, alongside observatory expert elicitation multiple data sources. To do this, skill score was benchmarked against average rate between 2011 2019. This exercise highlights conditions under three different approaches perform well where potential improvements made.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Bulletin of Volcanology

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0258-8900', '1432-0819']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01600-5